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Framework of Analysis for ATROCITY CRIMES
John Lindsey: Posted on Thursday, July 13, 2017 5:11 AM
International human rights law also places obligations on State Parties to take steps to prevent the acts it seeks to prohibit. For example, the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment specifies in Article 2 that State Parties “shall take effective legislative, administrative, judicial or other measures to prevent acts of torture”. When part of a widespread or systematic attack against a civilian population, torture can constitute a crime against humanity. 
In The United States Of America - The 'Peaceful Means To Curb Mass Atrocities Has Failed' 
The earlier the risk factors are identified, the greater the opportunities for early prevention. As times goes on, preventive action becomes more difficult and more costly. If, for example, the motivation behind increased violence against a particular group is recognized at an early stage, it will be possible for the State or the international community to develop strategies aimed at addressing and defusing this motivation. However, if atrocity crimes are already occurring, the options available to respond will be very limited and, in some cases, may require the use of coercive measures including, if all peaceful means fail, the use of force.
What are risk factors and indicators? Risk factors are conditions that increase the risk of or susceptibility to negative outcomes. Those identified in this framework include behaviors, circumstances or elements that create an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes, or indicate the potential, probability or risk of their occurrence. Risk factors are not all the same. Some are structural in nature, such as the weakness of State structures, while others pertain to more dynamic circumstances or events, such as triggering factors. Triggers and other dynamic elements transform general risk into an increased likelihood that atrocities crimes will be committed.
RISK FACTOR 2  --- Record of serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law---Record of serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law Past or current serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, particularly if assuming an early pattern of conduct, and including those amounting to atrocity crimes, that have not been prevented, punished or adequately addressed, and as a result, create a risk of further violations.!.
Indicators 2.1 --- Past or present serious restrictions to  or violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, particularly if assuming an early pattern of conduct and if targeting protected groups, populations or individuals.!. (Disabled Americans)
2.2 -- Past acts of genocide, crimes against humanity,  war crimes or their incitement.!.
2.3 -- Policy or practice of impunity for or tolerance of serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, of atrocity crimes, or of their incitement.!.
2.4 -- Inaction, reluctance or refusal to use all possible means to stop planned, predictable or ongoing serious violations of international human rights and       humanitarian law or likely atrocity crimes, or              their incitement.!.
2.5 -- Continuation of support to groups accused of involvement in serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, including atrocity crimes, or failure to condemn their actions.!.
2.6 -- Justification, biased accounts or denial of serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law or atrocity crimes.!.
2.8 -- Widespread mistrust in State institutions or  among different groups as a result of impunity !!!
RISK FACTOR 3 --- Weakness of State structures Circumstances that negatively affect the capacity of a State to prevent or halt atrocity crimes.
3.4 -- Lack of effective civilian control of security forces. 
3.5 -- High Levels Of Corruption Or Poor Governance. 
3.6 -- Absence or inadequate external or internal mechanisms of oversight and accountability, including those where victims can seek recourse for their claims.
RISK FACTOR 7 -- Enabling circumstances or preparatory action Events or measures, whether gradual or sudden, which provide an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes, or which suggest a trajectory towards their perpetration.
7.1 -- Imposition of emergency laws or extraordinary security measures that erode fundamental rights. 
7.4 -- Acquisition of large quantities of arms and ammunition or of other objects that could be used to inflict harm. 
7.8 -- Increased violations of the right to life, physical integrity, liberty or security of members of protected groups, populations or individuals, or recent adoption of measures or legislation that affect or deliberately discriminate against them. 
7.10 -- Imposition of life-threatening living conditions or the deportation, seizure, collection, segregation, evacuation, or forced displacement or transfer of protected groups, populations or individuals to camps, rural areas, ghettos or other assigned locations. 
7.11 -- Destruction or plundering of essential goods or installations for protected groups, populations or individuals, or of property related to cultural and religious identity. 
7.12 -- Marking of people or their property based on affiliation to a group. 
7.13 -- Increased politicization of identity, past events or motives to engage in violence. 
7.14 -- Increased inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns or hate speech targeting protected groups, populations or individuals.
8.9 -- Sudden changes that affect the economy or the workforce, including as a result of financial crises, natural disasters or epidemics. 

8.10 -- Discovery of natural resources or launching of exploitation projects that have a serious impact on the livelihoods and sustainability of groups or civilian populations. 
8.11 -- Commemoration events of past crimes or of traumatic or historical episodes that can exacerbate tensions between groups, including the glorification of perpetrators of atrocities. 
8.12 -- Acts related to accountability processes, particularly when perceived as unfair.
RISK FACTOR 9 --- Intergroup tensions or patterns of discrimination against protected groups Past or present conduct that reveals serious prejudice against protected groups and that creates stress in the relationship among groups or with the State, generating an environment conducive to atrocity crimes.
9.1 -- Past or present serious discriminatory, segregational, restrictive or exclusionary practices, policies or legislation against protected groups. (Firearm Owners & Disabled Americans)
 9.2 -- Denial of the existence of protected groups or of recognition of elements of their identity. (Firearm Owners & Disabled Americans)
9.3 -- History of atrocity crimes committed with impunity against protected groups (Firearm Owners & Disabled Americans)
RISK FACTOR 11 --- Signs of a widespread or systematic attack against any civilian population Signs of violent conduct including, but not limited to, attacks involving the use of force, against any civilian population and that suggest massive, large-scale and frequent violence (widespread), or violence with patterns of periodicity, similitude and organization (systematic).
1.1 -- Signs of patterns of violence against civilian populations, or against members of an identifiable group, their property, livelihoods and cultural or religious symbols. 
11.2 -- Increase in the number of civilian populations or the geographical area targeted, or in the number, types, scale or gravity of violent acts committed against civilian populations. 
11.3 -- Increase in the level of organization or coordination of violent acts and weapons used against a civilian population. 
11.4 -- Use of the media or other means to provoke or incite to violent acts. 
11.5 -- Signs of a plan or policy to conduct attacks against civilian populations. 
11.6 -- Establishment of new political or military structures that could be used to commit violent acts. 
11.7  -- Access to or increasing use of significant public or private resources for military or belligerent action, including the acquisition of large quantities of weaponry or other instruments that can cause death or serious harm. 
11.8 -- Signs of development or increased use of means or methods of violence that are incapable of distinguishing between civilian and military targets or that are capable of mass destruction, persecution or weakening of communities

In The United States Of America - The 'Peaceful Means To Curb Mass Atrocities Has Failed'  

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